I would like to point out how things are happening in India and where are bottle necks..
- I have seen two growth cycles of India each of 5 years. How things go up and how they come down. Stock markets represent the growth in India to people outside. If stock market is bullish everyone say that India is growing and if its coming down everyone says growth has stopped.
- Real Estate prices go up along with the stock market and also come down with it. This is very problematic situations as in most other countries this is not so.
- Real Estate boom starts because of the real business growth in India, but is overtaken by Investment lead growth. e.g. Recently the continuous boom in IT & ITeS industry created millions of jobs and people moved to bigger cities where this industry exist. They needed cost effective homes, Good interest rates and home finance lending lead to lot of demand and the real estate industry started growing. it also lead to lot of domestic growth as new jobs created new buying power. Surely few other sectors like Automobiles, Textiles, Diamonds also created lots of jobs but such jobs had limited buying power. Telecom also contributed a lot.
- As the growth started more and more industries came up benefit from it. But soon so much FDI (foreign Direct Investment) started coming to India who started investing in every field possible by making an assumption that India growth story is starting. This investment is normally quite substantial and very lucrative for Indian businessman.
- When such investment is available easily, it completely shift the mindset of Indian businessman form the core fundamentals of growth to investment oriented growth. Where they focus how they can get more and more investment with little focus on how well they convert that investment into what Indian consumer needs.
- NRI (Non Resident Indians) investment also start coming more and more to India. as NRI take lot of loans abroad and invest in India if growth prospects are better. They may also move lot of their savings. Most of this NRI investment go into Real Estate. Lot of other Foreign money also go into Real estate indirectly.
- Due to very large amount of flow of money into Indian real estate segment, the demand quickly increases. I sometimes feel that several millions of NRIs as well as international investors are always waiting for Indian growth story to start, and as they feel it starts, all of them jump in together to cash on it.
- But India has lot of governance and infrastructure issues, due to this its not capable of taking so much investment together. e.g. Supply of real-estate and land is highly effected by government policies and planning. When demand increase the supply hardly increase .
- Political & Bureaucracy class which make all policies, normally hold lot of investments in Real estate, specially land mostly in Black (illegitimate). When they see the real estate prices rising, they are always interested in shortage to get created and their own land prices go up significantly before they sell them off. Hence they are not keen to let Demand & Supply match.
- Once the price increase significantly, they start selling their prime land and start buying land around the city. Later they change policies to include the peripheral land inside the city or under some scheme plan to provide infrastructure there and let the supply come to market, slowly.
- Most builders are affiliated with Political & Bureaucracy class and they work as per their plans. They always need land and infrastructure for their projects... This partnership ensure that the growth falls quickly into a bottleneck.
- Mainly these people are interested in cashing on the investments that come from NRI or other indirect investment. NRI and other businessman invest in high priced properties considering their price will increase and they will make quick money.
- But in this game, the real Indian worker is totally forgotten, the one who started this growth story. Who is spellbound with what is happening with the lovely growth story whose part he was. he thinks he has lost the race as other have gone far ahead. But he is very intelligent decision maker, he re align his budget, he will never buy costly properties or goods.
- All this game happen in a different way at stock markets. where industrialists forget the real growth drivers, and just start working to get more and more investments by making tall claims to achieve higher prices for their company stocks. They forget to increase salaries and make great products for the consumer who helped him become part of the growth story. on the other hand these companies start offering futuristic products that invest think is great product to launch and he is happy to give money for it.
- After lot of hip-hop one sudden day some intelligent analysts and government finds that the consumer purchases have gone down, no one is buying homes and consumer goods. Suddenly all start talking how to ensure that growth will continue and consumer will start buying again. Some intelligent and dedicated industrialists and businessman start re-aligning their products and decrease prices.
- But the big ones are still dreaming of quick bucks and paper wealth. Suddenly things look downwards, the stock market start falling. The real estate price start falling. and the complete Indian growth story that was created looks like loosing its steam. Investors pull back after losses.
- Then it takes few years of innovation, focus on Indian customers to again create a new Indian growth story...
My question is why we loose the focus on Indian consumer & Innovation. Why can't we regulate growth to ensure it doesnot loose steam. Government has important role to play in this but when they themselves are involved in this game how can we expect them to control it.
I think that it will take several cycles of such growth may be 100 cycles to become a developed country.
But we should be somewhat happy that at least we are not going the wrong way like many other countries around us like pakistan, bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka. and many African countries who has huge political problems and are almost in negative growth overall..
I think that it will take several cycles of such growth may be 100 cycles to become a developed country.
But we should be somewhat happy that at least we are not going the wrong way like many other countries around us like pakistan, bangladesh, Nepal, Srilanka. and many African countries who has huge political problems and are almost in negative growth overall..