Investment, Lifestyle, Shopping - Articles & Reviews

Anna hazare . India against corruption

2011-04-09T10:29:00.001-07:00

In an amazing turn of events ... Anna hazare who was loosing his sheen of fight against corruption by even a CM in maharashtra not listening to him..suddenly becomes a national figure and even sonia gandhi and pm had to heed to his demand.

Its very surprising for many people ... It seems lot of things turned right for this to happen.

Scam tainted government facing the heat from opposition finally agreed for the jpc ... But citizens were not happy as they new a group of corrupt minister in jpc will finally do nothing...
.. Anna struck at right time when.elections were due in many states .. Congress was not ready for this.. And anna found the right place .... Delhi...

Samsung galaxy s i9003 review

2011-03-20T10:41:00.001-07:00

I recently lost my samsung galaxy s 9000 . One of the best in class phones i ever owned.

I thought of buying a lower end android phone from samsung but felt that most of them will not give me experience close enough and increase dependance on laptop again. I then saw galaxy s i9003 at 19k costing nearly 8k less then i9000.and with almost similar specs except the lcd is little lowerend.

I bought it found it ery close to i9000 experience. But i have been observing many issues lately that make the 8k discount questionable..

- lcd is surely quite a downgrade compared to super amoled. I cannot see anything under sunlight creating issues in taking snaps outdoor.

- touch response is also a downgraded.
- the biggest issue being observed is that performance of gprs edge connectivity is quite poor leading to failures often. Even gsm signal detection is poor . It looses the tower signal often.
- it only allow 4 browser windows to open at a time though i9000 allowed 8
- no improvement in gps is observed. Though wifi look faster. Camera software has particularly become very fast and i can take several shots one after other quickly.

Japan nuclear plant damages are beyond control

2011-03-17T09:04:00.001-07:00

Even after several days of coverage and witnessing explosions and problem reported in 4 reactors .. Media is yet waiting for announcement of failures in containing the.nuclear disaster.

Look at the videos and photographs they clearly show.significant damange to reactors. Some of the building roofs and top.flor are completely blown away.

Pouring water by helicopters is a joke. Also a announcement that even radiation detection central computer is not working is a blunt lie to media for an excuse that they do not know about radiation spread data.

Japanese themselves are not trusting their government on nuclear issue and international media is trusting them and waiting for one lie.after another from.politians.

Ipad 2 soldout in weekend

2011-03-14T04:40:00.001-07:00

Apple Ipad 2 is being mentioned as sold out in most stores in USA .
Articles mention.that possibly half a.million Ipad were sold.compared.to 300000 last year on launch .

I think much more may be one million or.more.might have been sold or in stock with stores.

Last year apple sold Ipad at the rate of 1.25 million per month. And they surely know that people are.waiting for. Ipad 2 since Jan and would have made provision for stocks between 1 to 2 million for march before.Steve jobs saying that it will be available in volumes from march 11 .

I think apple can sell 2 to 3 million Ipad per month this year in America itself and double this after international launch.

I think they must have made good.provisions.for.manufacturing them.

iPad 2 - Its a great improvement over iPad 1

2011-03-06T21:50:00.000-08:00

Its surprising why many geeks are calling iPad 2 as a minor improvement and hence no improvement in sales is expected..

If you review what Microsoft has been doing all years, They have given minor improvements and mostly degradation while launching the new windows OS year after year and 80% of the customers always lapped it up in first year of release itself.

Apple announced a new OS for the iPad 2 ,, and they have better following then Microsoft so not only i expect 80% of the current iPad2 users to upgrade but several new customers to join in.. sales by dec 31st for ipad 1 was 15million.. i expect it to be above 30million this year.

Also look at what Intel had been doing all these year, they had been release new CPUs mostly twice as fast and again 80% of the customers would upgrade irrespective of any other improvements.. Same is the case fo iPad2, it has Dual core CPUs 2X faster .. in addition 9X faster graphics.. and addition of cameras, and much better following then intel.

Surely there will be atleast 2X improvement in adoption of iPad

Also not after this increase iPad is not just a low end tablet between Smartphone and a Laptop, but its directly challenging the laptop more closely. Netbook Market will crash and shift completely to iPad2 (or similar devices), Secondly even many Laptop users will prefer iPad2 as a alternative. Thirdly many non PC/laptop users already find iPad amazing and will buy it.. All this show that iPad2 shall surely cross 30million sales figures.

iPad not only did improvements in the OS and hardware but also provide software like Video Editing & Music composing and editing along with facetime and photobooth improvements. Hence unlike Microsoft & Intel improvements without much benefit to end users they have given new dimension to iPad as not just for viewing content like photos/videos/music but also create and edit them.

Apple is also promoting iPad for the Business, if such adoption come then about 10 million additional sales are easily possible.

iPad - Redefining the PC Market

2011-03-03T09:12:00.000-08:00

iPad that started as a another new product from Apple, oversold nearly at the rate of 1.25million per month.

Initially felt that iPad type devices are more like an enlarged smartphone.. I had never used iphone and always looked it as a overpriced flashy toy that Americans love, much like ipod which again i never tried due to little interest in music..

Like many other tech guys i focus a lot on the specifications .GHz speed, RAM, Motherboard.. and reviews and comparisons spec. by spec.. most of which again use to be from geeks .. reassuring my belief in specifications..

I had used few smartphones like few HP PDAs and then windows mobile htc phones . most of them rarely gave me any value or benefit of the extra spend.. and mostly lead to lower battery life and most them them i either broke or lost..

I also had HP laptop tablet and earlier used HP touch pdas... with stylus.. after some interest in starting I never used touchscreen or stylus features.. and mostly end up finding them to be burden. This made me believe firmly that thuch screens are not good .. then for all my mobile also i always prefered full scale keyboard.. and used some nokia and htc models.. that worked well atleast for sending sms..

This was reason i never shown interest in iphone and later ipad..

But few months back my tech specifications interest brought me to buy 1GHz Smartphone Samsung Galaxy S .. after seeing good reviews from most users..even though i waited several months for its model with keyboard... but finally bought without keyboard as available..

I found the touchscreen amazing and withing few days i could do almost everything i wanted with keyboard without any issues and enjoyed its good 4inch LCD ..along wiht android OS..

Within few days i could do most of my work for which i used my netbook with it and i almost stopped using netbook at home.. even for travel it worked great.. i found it of great value .. even more then my netbooks and tablet laptop..and felt i should have gone for it much earlier..

it completely changed they way i use to read and access news.. i was consuming much more information then i use to earlier in a single day..

It made me to think that iphone might be doing all this since 1-2 yrs and if i had bought it .. it could have been helpful even at high price it sell in india.

The only problem i felt with galaxy s phone was that after using it for many hours my eyes will ace..and i though if there were to be device larger size .. it could have helped me do better.. and then i realized that ipad is exactly what apple launched it for..

I made plan to buy ipad.. but then read about motorola zoom and new ipad and planned to wait for them.. and here is launch of both the devices and they are amazing that if i start using them .. i may not even need my laptop at all.. even in office..

Savings with loyalty Programs

2009-02-01T03:15:00.001-08:00

Recently while looking at the Loyalty Programs, I came accross

http://www.pantaloon.com/green_point.asp

This is a Loyalty Program Card from Pantaloon Retail, one of the largest chain of Retail stores that Include prominent names like Big Bazaar & Pune Central. i am not sure if Home Town is also part of this program as its also from pentaloon retail.

In Pune there are several big Bazaars and 2 Pune Central stores allowing everyone in Pune to have easy access to these Shopping Malls.

Green Card Program is very interesting and have lot of good points. I recommend everyone to use this program to get extra savings. Some of the prominent points being

- Unlike other loyalty programs that ask you to collect points against each purchase and then redeem points, This scheme directly give you discounts on your purchase. Direct discount on purchases is much better then points.

- 5% to 10% Discounts is very good discount considering you can buy all kind of products from Pantaloon Stores. This is in addition to the discounts available already in these stores, which sometimes run upto 50%.

- 60 Days Exchange period if also large and very good. Often while shopping we mistakenly buy unwanted goods and are not able to return it in 7 - 15 days period and it lead to a loss. 60 days is big enough time for even lasy people and will make your shopping more profitabe. I believe that at least 5% of the purchase are losses due to wrong selection, but with 60 days exchange you can avoid such losses.

- There are many other benefits listed that can be valuabe. What i see in this scheme is real valuable loyalty program and not just a hogwash or polished looking program.

India income Tax Savings & Investment Planning

2009-01-31T03:16:00.000-08:00

I hope my earlier messages have helped you focus on Tax savings & Investment Planning.

You can get more information and tips from several sources like your seniors, yahoo answers, Google News search, Google Blog search etc.

For Tax savings you should have already done planning, else you are quite late for this financial year.

Some fo the tips are:

Medical bills: Claim upto 15000 Medical expenses
Sodexo passes: Take sodexo passes which are exempt from tax. they can be used in Big bazar outlets to buy food items.
Claim LTA allowance: Just claim any AIr ticket or Train tickets along with other transport used for local travel in India. Read online about LTA.
Life insurance: Plan your Insurance carefully, do not overspend in costly policies. Get the highest insurance at lowest price. Also take Mediclaim policy probably comnbined policy for your family. Avoid addons/riders.
ELSS investments: Invest in ELSS schemes like SBI Magnum Tax gain - Growth. Avoid other investment schemes like ULIPs, Insurance+investment schemes where the return on investment is not clear.

Note that Claiming Tax exemptions doesnot decrease your eligibility in getting higher home loan approvals. Overall if you are able to save your tax, it should increase your ability to get Home loan sanctions.

Why is ELSS investments beneficial ?

Lets say after calculating your income under tax brackets and all exemptions applied, still there is Rs.1lakh is comming under 10% tax bracket. So you will need to Pay a Rs.10000/- as Income Tax.

Now if you invest Rs.30000/- in ELSS scheme Then you will need to pay 10% income tax (Rs.7000) only on 70000/- ... so Rs.3000 will be your immediate cash benefit.

This means that you immediately earned Rs.3000/- (or 10%) Returns from your investment of Rs.30000/-

This is equivalent to earning 12% return on FD after 1 year. So if you can get money equivalent of 1 year interest on FD in just 1 month the why not go for it.

In case you salary fall in 20 to 30% bracket then i would call you careless if you do not consider such investments.

How to buy ELSS ?

if you have online Demat & trading account like form ICICI then you can directly buy it online in just 1 day. It will cost your about 2 to 2.5% as brokerage fees..

Else its also possible to directly find the SBI office in pune that deal with SBI Magnum ELSS scheme and visit their office and fill the forms. You will need PAN card for all such investments. its possible to get PAN card in just 7 days if you do not already have. In such case you may save 2% charges..

ELSS schemes also some with SIP(Systematic investment Plans) where fixed amount will be deducted from your bank account every month. Such option is suitable for next year planning. Also note that ELSS investment is locked (cannot withdraw) for 3 yrs. but its much better then Insurance liken investment which are locked for longer periods.

Stock markets & ELSS :

Returns on ELSS is directly linked to the performance of the Stock markets in india. In long term (5-10yrs) ELSS schemes always give higher returns compared to any other investment instruments like FD, NSC, ULIP etc.

When the stock markets have crashed , it is the best time to buy ELSS. in such case you may get the highest return in your first year.

At present the stock markets are quite down and it is right time to buy ELSS. You should track Nifty Index (nseindia.com) to track status of the market. Currently it is at 2800.

In case you have online Dmat trading account, it is easier for you to track the market and buy ELSS at the right time to get the lowest price. This way even if you pay 2% extra as brokerage will get covered.

Normally it is not possible to time the bottom of the market, so you should have some level below which you should buy the ELSS scheme. Some people expect that in Feb or March Nifty Index may fall below 2500 and it may be the best time. I believe that if you invest in ELSS at 2500 level then you can double your investment in 3 yrs whereas FD investment will take 7-9 yrs to double. In all cases you ahve to invest in the ETF before march end to claim benefit.

I also think that if someone invest in ELSS with SIP scheme regularly then he can grow his investment to huge amount after 30 years and he may not need Life insurance cover after 30 years. i.e. While buying Life Insurance do not pay high premium for getting some few lakh rupees returns after 30 years. it will be of little use

Rs.30000 invested today in endowment based insurance scheme will be max 2lakh after 30 years. But same invested in ELSS can be atleast 15lakh after 30 years. So why to pay extra premium for just getting 2lakh which will be of no value after 30 yrs..

Non-Tax Saving Investment:

After having invested in ELSS, if you still have funds for investment but do not want to lock them for 3 years then you can consider investing in Index ETF.

http://www.rediff.com/money/2003/sep/09spec1.htm

http://wealth.moneycontrol.com/features/mutual-funds/best-investment-today-etfs-/11551/0

Index ETF is very much like Mutual Fund but you can buy/sell it anytime like shares using online trading account. Most famous Nifty Index based ETF is "Nifty BeeS".

Normally one should buy them when the Stock Markets have crashed and not sell them for as long as possible. They can act as most suitable Retirement planning.

I do not recommend anyone to directly trade in stocks, it can be very risky you should only invest in ELSS, Mutual Funds or Nifty BeeS.

It is best to invest in them when markets have crashed. Any big crash in market should be looked upon as 50% discount for you. Just like you do shopping when there is 50% discount, similarly you should shop for investment schemes when there is 50% discount in stock markets.

Income Tax Planning, tax Savings

2009-01-12T21:38:00.000-08:00

As the financial year will come to end by March 2009 everyone needs to plan for the their Income Tax Planning..

Please read folloing useful points

- Income Tax savings is the easiest and the best short term savings anyone can do.

- Income Tax savings is also a tool for building your longterm investments like Retirement planning etc.

- First calculate the applicable Tax on your income as per bracket

- Check if you are using the maximum exemptions possible under sec 10 & 17 that include Transport Allowance, Medical Expenses, HRA (rental recepipts), Education allowance. Try best with all ways to get all these exemptions to the maximum level.. These sections are the easiest exemptions.

- Next If you have home loan then look for exemptions under section 8A (interest on home loan) & 8C (principal amount on home loan)

- If you have life Insurance then it is exempted under sec 8C and medical insurance (for you, your family and your parents) under sec. 8A

Further Life Insurance: I suggest that you treat Life insurance and Investment saperately. While taking Life Insurance, take the policies that five lowest premium and no maturity value. Go for Whole Life Limited Payment policy for pure Insurance or Term Insurance.

Investments: For investments go for ELSS(Equity Linked Savings Scheme) with SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) This is one of the best ways to invest and save tax. e.g. When you invest in this scheme you get immediate benefit in terms of the Tax exemption and further returns that will be always better then any endowment insurance policy or FD or PF. Even though stock markets keep flatuating the average returns over long period in Indian equity markets is more then 12%.

Airtel Digital TV Review

2009-01-12T20:22:00.001-08:00

Airtel launched Digital TV with some great advertisements campaigns.

But most people are unaware of the pricing and packages clearly..

AIrtel offer a starter pack of Rs.2500/- that cover Settop box with Dish , installation and 6 months of subscription Mega Pack (with most required channels)..

In comparison to tata sky and big tv this is cheapest option..

Most people confused about prices were so mainly because they foudn it cheaper and were confused if there are any hidden charges. But there is none..

I bought the settop box from a shop along with Rs.2500 vouchers.. I followed the simple instructions and everything worked well..

Most dealers are not sure about how much amount vouchers to be issues.. normally u should clear it with the airtel call center.

Some people found it very difficult to connect to their call center.. Most people said that their 1800 number was only accessable from Airtel mobile... but i found it working form my idea mobile also.. They also had the landline number available..

Airtel staff was good enough but i found some problems with their automatic voucher recharge system.. often their IVR system would hang up and i need to call agian after 30 mins..

Installation was done professionally.. and the channel quality and features are good.

The feature of single remore for TV and Settop is good and useful option. ALso they have Channel preview system that allow you to see 6 channels at a time and then decide which channel to open.. this is very good feature.. instead of text program name display in tatasky..

It happened in India - Satyam Scandal

2009-01-08T00:09:00.001-08:00

While studying the earlier bear markets behavior in India, i was surprised that this time there is no Big Scandal reported like Harshad Mehatas in 90s and Ketan parekh in 2000s.

But it finally Happened again and now we can say firmly that Indian markets have not really improved.

SEBI chief had been taking lot of credit for the regulation they have been doing and how they keep track of everything. SEBI chief has been getting due credit form various news channels as if depicting his role in SEBI as a great regulator.

But here is the biggest of all scandals.. that also in IT industry and the pride of India. Where would you like to hide ?

Satyam scandal is very different and very thought proviking, its something so difficult to achieve... But let me give you someinteresting points as what were soem regulatory issues that might have contributed.

- IT exporters like satyam have Income Tax Holidays, which is prime contributor to the scandal. If a company is not required ot pay tax on the profit , it will be more then happy to declare High Profit to achieve prestige in the stock markets. It is very easy to cook books to increase or decrease the profit. Actually most of the companies in India declare lower profits to save on Income tax. But for IT companies its opposite. We can now say for surety that atleast 80% of the IT companies are overstating their profits may by by 25 - 50%... so their EPS needs to be revised.

- IT companies also has lot of relaxation related to movement of funds, import duty , Forex currency management, overseas acquitions/listings... all these tools when combined with limited immovable assests and no fixed formula for valuation ... are basic ingrediants to cook frauds. Till now investors had been assuming that IT companies can make good profits so they will not look into fradulent practices.. but this is now cearly broken.

- Overseas work - i am sure Indian regulators have little control over what these companies have been doing overseas and how they have been routing and making use of their funds. (normally they should not be doing this) but as these companies are asking indian shareholders to value their foreign assets..we need to look into them. As most IT companies had great affliations for US captilist principals, its normal to assume that they must have kept large part of their funds abroad and must be reinvesting them there into instruments that are now considered risky. This means that severl IT companie smight have lost large amount of their cash in US markets. Also several companies they might have acquired in USA might be now bankrupt... This raises serious questions on their cash positions...Earlier people has questions mainly on the viability of their indian assets... but now we shall look into viability of their foreign assets..

- It is common for most companies to cook books and i am sure at present several indian corporates are carrying assets that do not exist. in the boom time its common for the companies to show regular consistent profits.. and CFOs are forced to cook books to present the situation agains the claims by CEO that he will makeup for it... When suddenly the markets started crashing CEOs could not makeup anything and planned drastic steps/frauds... and when the market fell further their frauds became visible...

- I think that tata group has been in great fisical mess and there are lot of chances that their group companies must involved in all this.. there has be huge movements of ownerships within group companies and even TCS has been quite actively involved.. Though tatas are capable of covering things up, few mistakes can bring things out.. Satyam was also about to coverup but probably Raju did some big mistakes...

- I also suspect lot of scandalous dealing in financial firms like Indiabulls, ICICI bank is already in picture, Dena bank, Yes bank, ... Almost all Real Estate companies including some Infrastructure companies. Anything that was very very high in boom time has big chances of cook book. But no one in India is going to investigate that and only if some big mistakes happen it will come to light.. The business groups that become expert in managing these things live for long.. others die...

FULL STOP on Luxury Appartments in India

2008-12-14T22:30:00.001-08:00

With the announcement by SBI chief about the Loan Policy for the Housing sector it is very clear that PSU banks are driving the Home Prices lower.

A unknown bracket of Rs.5lakh Home Loan was made most attractive with 8.5% rate and 10% margin requirements.

Though 5 lakh loan amiunt is unseen in the top 10 cities ... I believe it is very useful for small towns where 1BHK appartments will be mostly between 5 to 10 lakh.

This ideally means that government is encouraging very low cost housing and have no mercy for the developers who are not dropping their Prices.

Second bracket is 5lakh to 20 lakh is also ok with 9.5% interest rate and 15% Margin. Actually this bracker will meet the requirements of the Urban class but again for the Budget Homes.

Builders in last few years have been solely focusing on the Premium Luxury Home and 3/4 BHK houses targeted for IT setors, Reality investors and NRIs... but all this is changing.

At present in Pune builders are targeting 30lakh bracket to sell 2BHK houses but even this is impossible with 20lakh bracket and they will need to immediately come down to prices between 20 to 25 lakh.

Builders have been waiting for the home loan cut and now they are also sure that there is nothing much expected soon.. so they will need to rush and sell homes to all available people and this will create a stiff competition among developers and prices will automatically fall.

So overall a 15% drop in Home prices is clearly visible in next 6 months. Secondly All developers will not goto Tier 2 and 3 cities to acquire land for the low cost housing schemes.

But 5 lakh loan is interesting and will make many developers target this with homes prices between 5-7.5 lakh in Tier2 and 3 cities

World to Become Better After Financial Crisis

2008-11-21T23:28:00.001-08:00

People are at present focusing only on the immediate consequences of the Financial Crisis.

Lets look at the possibilities post the crisis.. May be 5-10 years later..

I think the world will be much better after this crisis... Every Crisis is end of a System and starting of a new system. What changes we expect to see in new system ?

The current crisis is the result of Leveraging Power given to Investors. For every $100 your have it was possible to invest upto $1000... 10 Times Leverage.

e.g.

If you have $10000 then you could easily buy a home worth $100000 ...

If you have $10000 then you could invest in financial instruments like derivatives upto $100000

If you start a new business with $100000 , then investors were ready to value it immediately to $1million or sometimes even more..

Even corporate, builders were able to get such a leverage.

This 10x Leverage is the main reason for the crisis. Financial institutes either invested in Derivatives, Projects or Lend to people. It has been good times and future growth looked secured, all the profits they earned was again invested with same leverage until few intelligent people started thinking that its too much and raised the alarm. Alarm sounded loud , that some big institutes started freezing money and all the ones above them started falling like pack of cards.

What it meant ?

Above 10x formula meant that Richer can become Rich much faster then poorer can become richer. In addition richer has much higher leverage available to him then a poorer. This is very clear if you analyze the data.

What post Crisis ?

Post crisis Rich people will not be able to leverage their money so much. Actually millions of Rich people would have become Poorer by the end of the crisis and they will never be able to reach earlier levels in several decades without focusing on Real Business Value.

This 10x Leverage took interest of businesses and entrepreneurs out of the basic fundamental of offering Real Value to the customers. They were purely interested in putting something forward so that they get 10x immediate value, and then they were looking for the next thing that will give this value.. Even though this process created jobs but unhealthy ones.

So reversal of this trend means Richer will not become rich quickly , they will have to offer fundamental value in the market, do innovation and face stiff competition. Which means creation of much larger number of healthy jobs, focus on value creation and long term outlook.

This will be very healthy for the economy and will create much larger number of jobs and significant value creation with long term focus. Hence I think that the post crisis period will be quite look for hard working individuals.

I remember in one entrepreneur meet in Bangalore, I heard one guy saying "These investors can make so much quick money in Real estate and Stocks that unless these things do not come down , we have little opportunities to get respect for our work" ... At that time I did not give much thought to it, but I think this is what will happen now. Very soon investors will look for intelligent, capable teams that have ability to build real value rather then play marketing and financial games.

What it meant that the "Opportunities of Growth presented by Small Businesses" who did not had enough leverage, were not attractive enough for Investors and hence they were not given due respect.. Instead investors were telling them to hire some HiFi CEOs or Financial manager who can actually ensure that the investment provided by the Level 1 investor gets its 10x value (some wanted 100x) from level2 investors... and Level2 gets 10x form level 3...

This is what they call as exit strategy... This is the man reason why you will see that many startups in India were mainly founded by Management Graduates with finance experience or CA .

So look for great time ahead and be happy that this world of financial gurus has come to an end.

World Wide Recession

2008-11-13T11:34:00.000-08:00

All of you are aware of WWW but here is new term coined by me WWR (World Wide Recession) ....

For several decades WWR will be remembered by you and your children... When you become very old, people will ask your , were you alive at WWR time ?

Each and every history and economics book will have chapters on WWR, People will compare markets and business against WWR ...

Is there any relation between WWW & WWR ?

Some people say Yes, WWW changed the world and brought WWR....

Some points put forward are :

- WWW lead to complete world to come closer and learn how others make money, Specially hoe USA work, How people live and earn money in USA, specially how USA markets and exonomy work. All this helped countries worldwide to implement similar systems. Most companies tiedup with USA companies to get technology and operational knowhow...

- In turn companies and individuals started investing in USA markets or in international markets thru USA. All international companies come to USA to get financed, and so does all investors. It was easy and simple single point location. i remember when my bank were to transfer money from Mumbai to Singapore, it use to transfer it first to usa and then a usa bank use to route it to singapore 9even when singapore was one of the major financial center of asia)

- WWW has a major role in doing this. USA companies were happy to see such a large amount of cash flow , actually the amount of cash available was less then the amount of investment opportunities availabe. Also the type of investment options were limited. This is when financial institutions came out with many ideas to use this cash flow with risky mortages, derivatives, hedge funds and more..

- The rapid growth of USA and some countries where investments were routed did quite well. Financial institutes assumed that things will continue as it is and became more and more greedy. Housing Market crisis in USA was related to this..

- Oil .. It is believed that when some Fund managers identified that if the world were to grow like think the oil will become short, they shifted large amount of money form their hedge funds to investment in Oil, which spiked Oil to such a high price that it became risk for the growing economies...

Indian Terrorism Taking Dangerous Turn

2008-11-08T11:20:00.001-08:00

I like to write about something very Dangerous Social Developments taken place recently and very hot topic in News channels these days.

- Arrest of Hindu rights groups and senior Indian army officials in malegoan blasts.

- Also some other blasts taken recently near Masjid in Hyderabad and one other, where Indian mujhedeen and SImi did not take any responsibility are being assigned to Hindu rights group.

These 2 events are so dangerous that they can complete change the face of India in near future. I like to bring some facts before bringing the real points.

- Terrorism has been a big challenge to Indian government since several decades. Terrorists have killed several lakh people and displaced many others.

- Indian government has failed to control terrorism and rarely taken any strict steps against it.

- Congress that has been in power since independence, has been shying away to take any strong steps to keep terrorism away from India. Steps taken by Indra Gandhi against Khalistan/Sikh movement did gave very good results but similar steps were not taken against Muslim terrorism.

- Governments always tried to project that terrorism is grown and controlled in pakistan and there is nothing required to be done in India except monitoring and reactive actions.

- Border monitring and Internal reactive actions mostly failed and Terrorist groups were able to make inroads into India and involved Indian Youths and Muslim rights groups.

- USA 9/11 success of terrorism effected thoughts of several muslim youth. It gave them a impressions that terrorism is very powerful. If it can give such a big jolt to USA then it can certainly help them achieve their simple political aims. Its glorious and can be financially beneficial.

- This made it easier for terrorist organizations to spread wings, and involve youths. This means that now terrorist do not come to India , but they live and operate from India.

All this lead to following additional events recently:

- Indian people lost faith in Indian government in countering terrorism. There are several movies that shown what India should have actually done to counter terrorism and showed that indian government is idiot in not doing this.

- Indian Army is having less then 1% muslims where as it should be 12% as per population average. Same is the case for Police in most states. This means that muslims are not involved in maintiang Indian security and harmony.

- Hindu Rights group observed that terrorists are attacking Hindu worship places like Temples, Religious cities. This was a direct challenge to Hindu rights groups. None of the government steps have helped reduce terrorism.

- Even after the pakistan and kashmiro movement took downtrend, the terrorism instead of decreasing , actually increased.

- All this has encouraged Hindu Rights groups to give direct answer to the Muslim terrorists by creating anti muslim movement and doing blasts in Masjids and Muslim populated areas.

- Involvement of Indian army officials show that, there is large rift in Indian army and they are not happy with the way government has been handling terrorism. Army is considered responsible for prevening Terrorism from penetrating into India. Army has been asking for actions on pakistan which indian government has not been permitting. Government has also prevented army several times from taking strong steps against terrorists in Kashmir. Several terrorists caught by arm were also release in different situations. All this probably has created rift that Government "Choodiya phen ke bhathi hai" .

- Recent blasts that indian Hindu RIghts groups and Army is a startling revelation but a late one. Normally it is expected that such a thing should have happened long back

- A movie released recently called "Wednesday" show the frustration among a common man and what he can do to counter terrorism. He plants bomb to kill 4 major captured terrorists and he succeed in it. At last complete police department support his efforts and applaud his efforts. Several movies with similar concepts have comeearlier. THis clearly show that there is concensus among common people , police and army that they should kill terrorists and people supporting them

- Most people believe that Muslim groups governed thru masjid are supporting muslim terrorism. and hence Hindu groups to act against them is expected.

What is expected in future ?

- For Muslim population and groups , this is a dangerous news. THis ideally means that they if any blash happen in any Hindu target, similar attacks are assured in Muslim targets. Earlier Muslim groups have been arguing that muslim terrorism have never harmed them so they should not be against them but now they have to rethink, they will be the soft targets of Hindu groups and they cannot do anything but to alienate themselves form muslim terrorism. They will have to openly say as well as practice this.

- This will certainly help in muslim terrorism to loose their support among othe rmuslim groups. this will reduce the fast growth seen in terrorism.

- But before this happen, there are chances that there will be a war among Hindu & Muslim terrorism groups. THis means that muslim groups will conduct several blasts in hindu targets and same will be the respocne by the hindu groups. THis will be most dnagerous situation in India and lead to political unstability.

- It is expected that after this war common hindu and muslim people will strongly start opposing terrorism both Hindu & Muslims and sloly terrorism will subside. But I am not sure how long it will take. As per Indian situation such social changes can take decades.

Real Estate Prices to Fall Further in India post Diwali

2008-11-06T03:15:00.001-08:00

Recent News flow has been suggesting that the Real Estate Prices will now stablize post diwali and Things will look upwards.

This is concluded by some real estate companies with claims that "RBI has cut Rates", "Banks are about to cut Interest Rates", Realestate company shares have already fallen a lot and further fall not expected. and stuff like that...

But I like to warn buyers that this is not expected to be true.

- Actually real estate prices have not fallen much as projected. The prices have fallen only in Suburbs and location where builders were quoting (only quoting not real sales) 5-6 times higher then normal expected prices. Builders had started projects on large land and put up rates that were just like rates at the city center. At present Builders have only reduced rates on these projects. which is actuall not a price fall but just a new price quote.

- The price fall means that if average (average in a quater) registered deals were being done at say Rs.5000 per sqft ... and this quater the average is Rs.4000/- then you can say that there is 20% price fall. In reality in many new projects that were launched there were no dealers done just price was quoted,, and now they are quoting low.. This is not what we can call a price fall.

- Many builders are projecting it as 20% price fall and saying that no further fall will happen, In reality they are making us fool. Obviously there is a price drop in real deals also but its not enough .

- Hence there is chance of a real price fall, Real Price fall is a Price Level at which the Buying Picks up and keeps growing atleast for a quater. At present there are no indications of this. Interest rates are comming down but now people are aware that its going to fall further in next few months so , people will wait.

- Also there is a huge dispute that has propped up in the Builders , before diwali all Builders has united for not to drop prices (except above artificial drop) and they were expecting sales to grow in diwali. But post diwali some builders have picked up argument (probably after seeing that there is not much sale in diwali) that the Real Price drop is necessary for the market to pickup.

- I believe that soon many builder will drop the rate and others will need to follow. This drop will be bigger and builders will offer low cost housing. Only if the demand grow significantly , people will start buying Real Estate shares. So even if builders do not make any profits but have sales, they can make up for it in their stock prices..

- Also there is news that all Private Equity deals in projects is being re-negotiated . This means that all new project plans will be changes. Instead of comming up with premium homes, IT parks they will get converted into low cost housing. And Builders will be forced to reduce prices significantly to ensure quick sales.

- Today SBI dropped the PLR by .75% . This is obviously very good for the Real estate section but I think it will need to be substantiated with real fall in prices.

- So wait for Real Fall in Price and more fall in Interest Rates. Overall wait for a feeling that you are getting a great deal that you never saw in the past.. Once this feeling come go ahead and buy.

- I also like to tell you that the Actual Real Estate Projects are still to come and nearly 10 years down the line. These projects will be associated with huge infrastructure projects and they will be of as big scale as a city. ALso they will be more affordable. Hence you will need to change your home anyway after 10 years. So while buying you home just think of it as 10 years deal.. Do not end up buying a Premium home with large EMI thinking that its your onetime investment. look for a home that is comfortable for you and near the place you work.

Buying Options to save your Mutual fund / UTI investment, insure your investments

2008-10-26T01:43:00.001-07:00

I like to let Mutual fund or UTI and other stock market related instrument buyers to learn about Options.

Options are instruments that allow you to protect your Investments in downtrends. Its like Insurance.

You Family is dependent on you so you buy mediclaim and life insurance to compensate for the losses due to medical problems and death.

Similaly you buy insurance for you Home and other assets.

You buy Mutual Funds and UTI/ULIP schemes as long term investment for your life. Your retirement or childrends education depend on it. You also invest to save taxes.

But in Bear market you may loose 50% or more of your investment within few months leading to tension and stress. The News may increase your BP and you may stop investing in markets.

There is a easy way to manage this. Buy Insurance for your Investment. Its called "Options"

Say if you have invested 2 lakh in mutual funds and other market linked assets. and you come accross the bear market that threatens to cut 50% or more of your investment. .... The best way is to Buy a "NIFTY PUT OPTION"

What is Nifty Put Option ?

Nifty means NSE Stock exchange Index. In bear markets it may fall by 50-60%... almost very similar to fall in your mutual fund portfolio.

"NIfty Put Option" is a Insurance scheme that will protect your investment from falling.

Nifty Put option is valid for 1 month to 3 months. hence you have to renew it agian if require. Norally you may buy them when you expect possibility of significant fall in Stock markets.

e.g. To protect 2 lakh investment in Mutual fund against fall of say 25% in 2 months, I will normally buy a Nifty Put option worth Rs.10000/- .

If Stock Market Index (Nifty) fall by 25% in 2 months... then The value of Rs.5000/- put option would be atleast Rs.50000/-

So My 2lakh investment will be now equal to Rs.1.5lakh but my Insurance policy will cover it up by growing to Rs.50000/-

So the total will be still 2lakh...

Just by investing Rs.10000/- you have saved yourself from loss of 50000/- in 2 months.. Isn't it amazing...

So your friends will by crying but you will be like a Smart Investor giving them tips... and enjoying your Diwali..

How to Buy Option ?

If you have demat account and Trading acocunt, you can directly buy it. But I suggest you to take advice form some broker or person who trade with options.

Tell him that you have investment of 2lakh in market links funds and you want to protect it against any fall for next 2-3 months due to bear market. You broker will calculate a maximum fall expected and can advice you the best option to buy to protect your investment.

Do ask him clearly as what is the maximum fall to which this option can protect, and what is its expiry date. Normally options are valid upto 3 months..

Then buy the option and relax at home..

I am not recommending you to buy options for anything other then Insurance. DO NOT TRADE IN OPTIONS.

Real Estate Property purchase in Diwali 2008

2008-10-26T00:57:00.001-07:00

Beaware of lot of chances of frauds and mis-commitments during diwali 2008 Property sales.

The Real Estate Market is in bad shape and this is the time lot of developers may resort to frauds and make fool of the customers.

What is the Problem ?

Real Estate Boom was started by working class like us but was hijacked by the Foreign Investors, Builders, Rich Investors and NRI.

Foreign Institutional investors were reayd to commit large money for the Builders to do large projects, Builders has started large projects and Rich Investors/NRIs were buying/pre-booking their property in expectations that the real estate prices will rapidly increase and they will sell the property.

When Inflation & Interest rates went up, they realized that there are not real buyers (working middle class) and there is little chance that these buyers will comeup for next few years to buy their property at high prices.

Recently the Foreign money dried up and no money is available to builders. Builders has also bought many large land banks at high cost by taking loans from banks. they are paying hich interest rates for it and they are not getting income from sales.

The big builders like DLF , Unitech are also in bad shape their stock prices have dropped nearly 80-90% and its not possible for them to raise funds for their projects. They have also invested in land and have to make payments for the same. There is news that some of them are defaulting.

So the problem is accross the board and things will not improve for long.

Old Projects !

Woek on old projects has stopped and builders are planning to sell the property first and build later. Also the money they are earning from some sales , is being diverted to pay their loans instead of completing the project.

This means that people who have bought property in uncompleted scheme will not get delivery by next 1-2 years and hence their cost of ownership increases at the benefit fo builder.

New Project Launches !

While all this is happening many builders have launched new projects before Diwali and promoting them agressively. This is clear indication of fraud or malafide intensions. When their old projects are themselves not sold , launching new projects is very surprising.

The only explaination seems is they want to sell Virtual Non existing attrative projects and lure some investors or buyers to invest in it. And they will use the proceeds for some other work. Also may be collecting money for paying for some dues of land. Also they may change payment terms and try to cheat you by taking higher commitments. I think there projects will take several years to take off and hence buyers must not invest in them.

RULE 1: Only and Only buy Ready properties. Go for resale or old properties for sale. Get premium discount for the same.

RULE 2: For buying any property in a partially built project, talk to few older buyers before commiting. Check if builder has been fullfilling their commitments.

Options Trading in India

2008-09-14T02:15:00.001-07:00

Options is a Mode of Trading in Stocks, Commodities & Indices under F&O (Futures & options) segment.

F&O Trading is now a well talked about topic on Business news channel like CNBC & NDTV Profit...

My basic survey suggest that Options is being used mainly by Institutions and Professional Trading houses.

I have not seen any news and activity related to F&O in Individual & Small Trading community. This means that

the eduction about F&O is limited and people are not very enthuistic about it.

In USA and developed markets there is lot enthuisism about Options, Many individuals and small traders are regularly trading in Options.

Actually many Online Trading platforms now promote Options more then general trading. Many of them expect their customers to actively trade Options.

There are lot of websites and Tradining material available for options traders abroad.

I found Options very interesting and useful for short terms trading.

Options Trading in India

2008-09-14T02:14:00.001-07:00